Where Have You Gone, Jason Bay?

Image by Keith Allison via Flickr

It's hard to get on a guy who's leading the league in RBI in a season that will by far eclipse any season he's had in his career, production-wise.

But I'm going to do it anyway.

Sure, Jason Bay is first in the league and third in all of baseball in RBI behind two pretty good hitters in Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols. But folks, let's remember that he's been stuck at 72 RBI's since July 9 and has only had three RBI in the month of July.

I realize those numbers were sure to be down with a four-day break right smack dab in the middle, but let's face it, the man has been slowly fading away for some time now.

Month by month, Bay's batting average, on-base percentage and slugging have all slid. Observe:

With the exception of a better on-base percentage in July, everything has dropped off the table, especially over the last two months.

15 of Bay's 20 home runs came in the first two months of the season, that is to say 50 games. He averaged a home run every 11.8 at-bats. He had almost an RBI a night. In the last 37 games, he's hit five homers at a clip of one per 27.6 at-bats with 23 RBI. While he only hit .230 in June, it was acceptable because he was still driving in runs, knocking in 20 over 28 games. Still respectable. But what he's done since has to be cause for concern.

And while Bay has never been known as one to keep his strikeout totals down, lately, his number of quality at-bats has plummeted. This month alone he has 19 strikeouts, setting a pace for him to fan almost 40 times in a month that featured the All-Star break.

To what can we attribute this dramatic free fall? We all knew that Jason Bay wasn't going to hit 60 home runs with 170 RBI. But no one expected the kind of disappearing act he's pulled.

Could it be he's missing the presence of a legitimate bat behind him? Mike Lowel

Image via Wikipedia

l has spent most of the year batting behind Bay, but missed a great deal of time towards the end of June with soreness in his surgically repaired hip. Before returning yesterday, Lowell hadn't started a game since June 25. David Ortiz then batted behind Bay from the 26th until Lowell was put on the disabled list on July 1, so it would seem to blow up that theory. Bay struggled with Ortiz behind him, including a dismal five-strikeout performance on July, despite the fact that Ortiz had a very, very good June, posting high totals in both power and average. Still, it seems he's late on fastballs and perhaps isn't quite as intimidating as he once was. With the monster first half Bay had, he still seems to be the more dangerous of the two hitters and maybe, just maybe, pitchers would much rather face Ortiz at this point.

Then Tery Francona aparently thought the best way to get Bay going was to take away any protection in the lineup whatsoever as Ortiz moved ahead of Bay. From July 2 until Lowell's return last night, Bay was followed in the order by the likes of Jacoby Ellsbury and his .747 OPS (four times), Jason Varitek, who is batting a robust .237 (twice), Mark Kotsay and Rocco Baldelli.

The Red Sox can only hope that the steady presence of a legitimate bat behind him will spark Bay. You can't blame it solely on the lineup. He just hasn't been seeing the ball well. But it's a lot easier to see the ball, hit the ball when you're seeing more good pitches.

Lowell doesn't have to be a savior. He just has to hit the ball and be a threat. Make them pitch to Bay and good things will happen again.