Thursday, June 17, 2010

Time to stop worrying about stolen bases

A big to-do has been made lately about the Red Sox being dead last in stolen bases. My question is this: Why?

Just for a little background, the Red Sox are now dead last in Major League Baseball with 20 stolen bases on the season. The league average is 41.

Don't get me wrong, stealing bases can be a valuable weapon. The Tampa Bay Rays make a living off of stealing bases and they're a pretty good team. But let me be clear about one thing - the Red Sox are not in trouble because they don't steal bases.

The main reason a team steals bases is to get runners into a better position to drive them in. Surprisingly, that's the one thing the Red Sox have been able to do this season. The Red Sox have the baseball's highest team OPS and are second only to Toronto in extra base hits. So the Red Sox have proven themselves capable of getting men into scoring position without the need for the stolen base.

And you know what? Boston has done a pretty darn good job of bringing those guys in. The team ranks second in the majors win runs with 365, just one fewer than the New York Yankees.

On top of that, let's review the Red Sox' style of play generally. The Red Sox are not a small ball team. They never have been. It is not an essential part of the Red Sox game plan. Last year the Red Sox were fifth in baseball with 126 stolen bases, 70 of those by Jacoby Ellsbury. What happened that year? The Red Sox were swept by the Angels in the ALDS. So how did the stolen base help them?

Bottom line is it didn't. For the Red Sox the stolen base is a novelty, not a necessity. The offense is doing just fine without it. It's not that the Red Sox lack speed. While not true stolen base threats J.D. Drew, Marco Scutaro, Dustin Pedroia and Mike Cameron are all capable runners on the bases when it counts - when the ball is in play.

So stop worrying about a part of the game that is extremely overstated when it comes to the Red Sox. The pitching is there. The defense is solid. The offense is overachieving, even without the stolen base.