Here are five bold - or perhaps not-so-bold - predictions about the Irish this week:
5. Theo Riddick will not duplicate his breakout performance.
It was terrific seeing Riddick get involved in the offense the way he did, but he was as successful as he was because he was a match up nightmare for the Spartans. Brian Kelly knew this and that's why he was so confident in telling people to watch out for Riddick last week. This week, the kid who has played three games at wide receiver takes on the top-ranked pass defense. The only team to put up more than 100 passing yards was Sacramento State in the opener. That's pretty good.
4. Notre Dame's defense will give up over 200 yards on the ground for the third-straight game.
Andrew Luck is getting a lot of press for the Cardinal and he rightly should. He's establishing himself as a solid NFL prospect. But Stanford's strength remains in its backfield, even if Toby Gerhart isn't there anymore. Stanford has a stable of quick, athletic runners, exactly the thing that has torched Notre Dame this season. Stepfan Taylor and Tyler Gaffney are the main men. In three games, they have a combined 294 yards with an average of 5.44 yards per carry.
3. Notre Dame will score fewer than 24 points.
This is a nightmare matchup for Notre Dame. The Irish are a pass-first team going against one of the best pass defenses in the country, not having allowed a passing touchdown through the first three games.
2. Armando Allen will rush for 100 yards for the first time this season.
As good as the Cardinal's pass defense has been, the run defense has been simply mediocre. Allen is averaging 5.5 yards per carry and has put up 253 yards through the first three games in a pass-first offense, including 71 against the twelfth-ranked Michigan State run defense. Knowing how tightly his receivers are going to be covered, Kelly is smart enough to try to exploit a defense's weakness...we think.
1. Notre Dame will start the year 1-3, but still finish the season with at least eight wins.
Going 1-3 would be the worst start for Notre Dame since the dreadful 2007 season, but there's no reason to think this season will end similarly. This has been a very difficult stretch for the Irish. They have played three traditional rivalry games whose series date back into the 1800s (if you don't think that matters, ask a player) and two of those teams have been dubbed good enough for the Top-25 in both major polls. Stanford could possibly be the best team on the Irish's schedule this year. It gets a little easier after that with Boston College and a Pittsburgh team that has really underperformed. Then things get a lot better for the Irish with Western Michigan, a struggling Navy team and Tulsa. Let's not forget that all but the Navy game are at home. Notre Dame quite conceivably could have six wins by the time Utah comes to town. And before you go throwing around accusations of Notre Dame scheduling weak opponents, consider this: Notre Dame plays five of its 12 games this season against ranked opponents - Michigan (21/22) Michigan State (25/23), Stanford (16/17), Utah (13/13), USC (20/-).
Wednesday, September 22, 2010
Monday, September 20, 2010
Irish still have a lot of work to do.
While I did not drink the Kool-Aid when it came to the hiring of Brian Kelly the way I did when Notre Dame brought in Charlie Weis, but I have to admit I did take a sip.
That sip was enough to make me believe that, while they would not come close to a national title, that the Irish would be much improved over last season. After the three games, that has proven not to be the case.
Notre Dame is that same team that does well enough offensively to be in every ballgame, but gives up big plays defensively and makes enough mistakes on both sides of the ball to make what should be close wins close losses and what should be big wins simply close wins.
Sure, Notre Dame is in the top-25 in the nation in total offense. Ok, they have the eighth-best passing attack in the nation. This team needs to be more than a statistics machine.
The Irish need to start producing, both offensively and defensively. For all those offensive yards, the Irish are 73rd in the country in scoring, behind Washington. Defensively, the Irish are 102nd in total defense, yielding 443.7 yards per game, while ranking 76th in scoring defense.
That's not to say it was all bad. The defense battled for most of the game and fared fairly well. But on several occasions, the Irish suffered breakdowns in coverage or missed tackles that led to big plays. And when the offense isn't scoring, the defense cannot give up too many big plays.
The sky is not falling in South Bend just yet. But if the Irish don't start turning some things around, with the quality of the opponents Notre Dame faces, it could be a long season.
Crist on the run
As a pro-style quarterback, Dayne Crist is used to standing in the pocket and delivering a pass. As a Charlie Weis recruit, that's what he expected to do when he took over as quarterback at Notre Dame. But with the entrance of Brian Kelly came the spread offense and the necessity for the quarterback o be able to run and to throw while on the run. The Michigan State game was further proof that Crist just isn't comfortable with that concept yet. On several occasions while on the run, Crist short hopped throws to his intended receivers, whether it be running backs, wide receivers or his big tight end Kyle Rudolph.
Riddick-ulously good
Last week, I pointed out that Theo Riddick had been a bust as a slot receiver and he needed to be a bigger part of the offense. A bigger part he became on Saturday, catching 10 passes for 128 yards and a touchdown. He showed an ability not only to make the catch, but to make defenders miss when he had the ball in his hands, a benefit of being a former running back. While he doesn't need to have 10 catches a game for the Irish to be effective offensively, he needs to be involved and continue to be a threat.
That sip was enough to make me believe that, while they would not come close to a national title, that the Irish would be much improved over last season. After the three games, that has proven not to be the case.
Notre Dame is that same team that does well enough offensively to be in every ballgame, but gives up big plays defensively and makes enough mistakes on both sides of the ball to make what should be close wins close losses and what should be big wins simply close wins.
Sure, Notre Dame is in the top-25 in the nation in total offense. Ok, they have the eighth-best passing attack in the nation. This team needs to be more than a statistics machine.
The Irish need to start producing, both offensively and defensively. For all those offensive yards, the Irish are 73rd in the country in scoring, behind Washington. Defensively, the Irish are 102nd in total defense, yielding 443.7 yards per game, while ranking 76th in scoring defense.
That's not to say it was all bad. The defense battled for most of the game and fared fairly well. But on several occasions, the Irish suffered breakdowns in coverage or missed tackles that led to big plays. And when the offense isn't scoring, the defense cannot give up too many big plays.
The sky is not falling in South Bend just yet. But if the Irish don't start turning some things around, with the quality of the opponents Notre Dame faces, it could be a long season.
Crist on the run
As a pro-style quarterback, Dayne Crist is used to standing in the pocket and delivering a pass. As a Charlie Weis recruit, that's what he expected to do when he took over as quarterback at Notre Dame. But with the entrance of Brian Kelly came the spread offense and the necessity for the quarterback o be able to run and to throw while on the run. The Michigan State game was further proof that Crist just isn't comfortable with that concept yet. On several occasions while on the run, Crist short hopped throws to his intended receivers, whether it be running backs, wide receivers or his big tight end Kyle Rudolph.
Riddick-ulously good
Last week, I pointed out that Theo Riddick had been a bust as a slot receiver and he needed to be a bigger part of the offense. A bigger part he became on Saturday, catching 10 passes for 128 yards and a touchdown. He showed an ability not only to make the catch, but to make defenders miss when he had the ball in his hands, a benefit of being a former running back. While he doesn't need to have 10 catches a game for the Irish to be effective offensively, he needs to be involved and continue to be a threat.
Monday, September 13, 2010
Alarming discrepancy in production for the Irish
It's a discrepancy that cannot be overlooked. Twentieth in the nation in passing offense. Twenty ninth in total offense. Eighty first in scoring offense.
While much has already been said about Saturday's heartbreaking loss to Michigan and how it all could have been different, this is a deeper issue. That's not to say Dayne Crist's absence from most of the first half did not have a tremendously adverse effect on the offense's production. Clearly it did.
True freshman Tommy Rees played two series. The first one ended on its second play when his first collegiate pass was picked off to set up a Michigan touchdown. His second series faltered and he exited the game without picking up a first down.
He was replaced by Nate Montana, who also struggled. Montana - who clearly did not receive anything football-related from his father, other than the name - didn't move the ball much better. On six series, Notre Dame picked up a whole six first downs. Three of those came on the last drive of the first half - a series that required a personal foul penalty to continue the drive and yielded no points, despite the Irish getting down to the Michigan three-yard line.
But let's not forget that Crist was far from perfect. Yes, on his first drive he was 5-of-7 passing and scored the opening touchdown, even after taking a hit that left him with blurred vision that led to him being held out for the rest of the half. And yes, when he returned, his second pass of the half was a 53-yard touchdown to bring the Irish to within a touchdown.
After that, however, Crist completed just four of his next 12 passes for 61 yards and threw an interception after a missed Michigan field goal before his unbelievable heave to Kyle Rudolph that would have instantly made him a Notre Dame legend had the defense been able to contain Denard Robinson and prevent that final touchdown.
Considering the offense was without its most valuable member for almost a half, it's impressive that they were able to put up a whopping 535 yards of total offense. But when you rack up that much yardage, you had better come away with more than 24 points to show for it.
Brian Kelly is a guy who usually gets a lot out of his offense. Cincinnati ranked fourth in 2009 and 17th in 2007 in scoring offense and neither of those teams had a receiver at the same caliber of Michael Floyd or Kyle Rudolph.
Rudolph has lived up to the All-American hype he has received, but elsewhere, Kelly is still trying to piece it together. After two games last season, Michael Floyd had 11 catches for 320 yards and four touchdowns, including 131 yards and a score against these Wolverines. This season, Floyd has 10 catches for over half the yardage and no scores (though, admittedly, one of the receptions he had against Purdue would have been a touchdown had he not fumbled).
Armando Allen has done well as a runner, but Kelly has failed to see is value as a receiver out of the backfield. He has just two catches for nine yards. He converted running back Theo Riddick into a slot receiver in a move that has proved to be a dud so far (two catches, three yards). Freshman T.J. Jones has been a nice surprise scoring big touchdowns in both of the team's two games.
Kelly was given a raw deal in terms of what he has to work with this season because of how poor Charlie Weis was as a recruiter. However, Kelly knew this when he took the job and now it's his job to figure out how to make it all work.
To kick or not to kick
There has been much ado about Kelly's decision to go for the touchdown on Michigan's three-yard line and the argument is pretty understandable.
If Kelly kicks the field goal and gets some points, at the end of the game, Notre Dame would only have to kick a field goal to win the game. But by that logic, if the Irish had scored a touchdown there, a field goal wouldn't have been necessary at all. Even if Robinson scores with 27 seconds remaining, his team is still down by three points with that much time left.
The issue wasn't the play call. The issue was the execution. In that situation, Montana has to give his playmakers the chance to make a play. It's the end of the quarter. An interception is meaningless. Use the one gift you have - arm strength - and drill one into the end zone that your receivers at least have a chance at.
Kelly has left a lot to be desired in terms of getting big plays from his big play guys, but this instance was not on him.
Other than Crist, the cupboard is bare
If there's one thing that should worry Irish fans about Kelly and his spread offense, it's that he goes through his share of quarterbacks. Zach Collaros appeared in 12 games in relief or starting in the place of Tony Pike last year in Cincinnati. It worked out for the Bearcats because Collaros, as a mobile quarterback, actually fit Kelly's offense well and he actually provided more options for the team.
The same cannot be said for the Irish. When Crist came out of the game, there was a clear difference not only in the abilities of the athletes, but even the offense being run. Kelly immediately went more conservative with tighter sets and showed virtually no confidence in either quarterback's ability to run his offense.
Should Crist have to miss any significant amount of time, it will be a very long year for the Irish.
Defending the defense
While some may find it hard to find a bright spot in a defense that gave up 532 yards of total offense, including 502 to one player, the Notre Dame defense did do some nice things.
The third quarter was an especially good one of the the Irish, who allowed just three first downs in that stanza.
Also, Michigan was only able to convert three of 16 third downs into first downs and on the season have allowed only 24.24 percent of their opponents to convert on third down, which is good for 18th in the country.
Darius Flemming, who barely played in the opener because of cramping, had a very nice game for the Irish. He recorded six total tackles and came up with a huge second-half pass deflection. By the end of the season, he could be a household name.
Manti Te'o did show improvement with 13 total tackles, including one for a loss, but still had some pretty big misses in key situations. "Baby Seau" needs to stay at home a bit more.
While much has already been said about Saturday's heartbreaking loss to Michigan and how it all could have been different, this is a deeper issue. That's not to say Dayne Crist's absence from most of the first half did not have a tremendously adverse effect on the offense's production. Clearly it did.
True freshman Tommy Rees played two series. The first one ended on its second play when his first collegiate pass was picked off to set up a Michigan touchdown. His second series faltered and he exited the game without picking up a first down.
He was replaced by Nate Montana, who also struggled. Montana - who clearly did not receive anything football-related from his father, other than the name - didn't move the ball much better. On six series, Notre Dame picked up a whole six first downs. Three of those came on the last drive of the first half - a series that required a personal foul penalty to continue the drive and yielded no points, despite the Irish getting down to the Michigan three-yard line.
But let's not forget that Crist was far from perfect. Yes, on his first drive he was 5-of-7 passing and scored the opening touchdown, even after taking a hit that left him with blurred vision that led to him being held out for the rest of the half. And yes, when he returned, his second pass of the half was a 53-yard touchdown to bring the Irish to within a touchdown.
After that, however, Crist completed just four of his next 12 passes for 61 yards and threw an interception after a missed Michigan field goal before his unbelievable heave to Kyle Rudolph that would have instantly made him a Notre Dame legend had the defense been able to contain Denard Robinson and prevent that final touchdown.
Considering the offense was without its most valuable member for almost a half, it's impressive that they were able to put up a whopping 535 yards of total offense. But when you rack up that much yardage, you had better come away with more than 24 points to show for it.
Brian Kelly is a guy who usually gets a lot out of his offense. Cincinnati ranked fourth in 2009 and 17th in 2007 in scoring offense and neither of those teams had a receiver at the same caliber of Michael Floyd or Kyle Rudolph.
Rudolph has lived up to the All-American hype he has received, but elsewhere, Kelly is still trying to piece it together. After two games last season, Michael Floyd had 11 catches for 320 yards and four touchdowns, including 131 yards and a score against these Wolverines. This season, Floyd has 10 catches for over half the yardage and no scores (though, admittedly, one of the receptions he had against Purdue would have been a touchdown had he not fumbled).
Armando Allen has done well as a runner, but Kelly has failed to see is value as a receiver out of the backfield. He has just two catches for nine yards. He converted running back Theo Riddick into a slot receiver in a move that has proved to be a dud so far (two catches, three yards). Freshman T.J. Jones has been a nice surprise scoring big touchdowns in both of the team's two games.
Kelly was given a raw deal in terms of what he has to work with this season because of how poor Charlie Weis was as a recruiter. However, Kelly knew this when he took the job and now it's his job to figure out how to make it all work.
To kick or not to kick
There has been much ado about Kelly's decision to go for the touchdown on Michigan's three-yard line and the argument is pretty understandable.
If Kelly kicks the field goal and gets some points, at the end of the game, Notre Dame would only have to kick a field goal to win the game. But by that logic, if the Irish had scored a touchdown there, a field goal wouldn't have been necessary at all. Even if Robinson scores with 27 seconds remaining, his team is still down by three points with that much time left.
The issue wasn't the play call. The issue was the execution. In that situation, Montana has to give his playmakers the chance to make a play. It's the end of the quarter. An interception is meaningless. Use the one gift you have - arm strength - and drill one into the end zone that your receivers at least have a chance at.
Kelly has left a lot to be desired in terms of getting big plays from his big play guys, but this instance was not on him.
Other than Crist, the cupboard is bare
If there's one thing that should worry Irish fans about Kelly and his spread offense, it's that he goes through his share of quarterbacks. Zach Collaros appeared in 12 games in relief or starting in the place of Tony Pike last year in Cincinnati. It worked out for the Bearcats because Collaros, as a mobile quarterback, actually fit Kelly's offense well and he actually provided more options for the team.
The same cannot be said for the Irish. When Crist came out of the game, there was a clear difference not only in the abilities of the athletes, but even the offense being run. Kelly immediately went more conservative with tighter sets and showed virtually no confidence in either quarterback's ability to run his offense.
Should Crist have to miss any significant amount of time, it will be a very long year for the Irish.
Defending the defense
While some may find it hard to find a bright spot in a defense that gave up 532 yards of total offense, including 502 to one player, the Notre Dame defense did do some nice things.
The third quarter was an especially good one of the the Irish, who allowed just three first downs in that stanza.
Also, Michigan was only able to convert three of 16 third downs into first downs and on the season have allowed only 24.24 percent of their opponents to convert on third down, which is good for 18th in the country.
Darius Flemming, who barely played in the opener because of cramping, had a very nice game for the Irish. He recorded six total tackles and came up with a huge second-half pass deflection. By the end of the season, he could be a household name.
Manti Te'o did show improvement with 13 total tackles, including one for a loss, but still had some pretty big misses in key situations. "Baby Seau" needs to stay at home a bit more.
Thursday, June 17, 2010
Time to stop worrying about stolen bases
A big to-do has been made lately about the Red Sox being dead last in stolen bases. My question is this: Why?
Just for a little background, the Red Sox are now dead last in Major League Baseball with 20 stolen bases on the season. The league average is 41.
Don't get me wrong, stealing bases can be a valuable weapon. The Tampa Bay Rays make a living off of stealing bases and they're a pretty good team. But let me be clear about one thing - the Red Sox are not in trouble because they don't steal bases.
The main reason a team steals bases is to get runners into a better position to drive them in. Surprisingly, that's the one thing the Red Sox have been able to do this season. The Red Sox have the baseball's highest team OPS and are second only to Toronto in extra base hits. So the Red Sox have proven themselves capable of getting men into scoring position without the need for the stolen base.
And you know what? Boston has done a pretty darn good job of bringing those guys in. The team ranks second in the majors win runs with 365, just one fewer than the New York Yankees.
On top of that, let's review the Red Sox' style of play generally. The Red Sox are not a small ball team. They never have been. It is not an essential part of the Red Sox game plan. Last year the Red Sox were fifth in baseball with 126 stolen bases, 70 of those by Jacoby Ellsbury. What happened that year? The Red Sox were swept by the Angels in the ALDS. So how did the stolen base help them?
Bottom line is it didn't. For the Red Sox the stolen base is a novelty, not a necessity. The offense is doing just fine without it. It's not that the Red Sox lack speed. While not true stolen base threats J.D. Drew, Marco Scutaro, Dustin Pedroia and Mike Cameron are all capable runners on the bases when it counts - when the ball is in play.
So stop worrying about a part of the game that is extremely overstated when it comes to the Red Sox. The pitching is there. The defense is solid. The offense is overachieving, even without the stolen base.
Just for a little background, the Red Sox are now dead last in Major League Baseball with 20 stolen bases on the season. The league average is 41.
Don't get me wrong, stealing bases can be a valuable weapon. The Tampa Bay Rays make a living off of stealing bases and they're a pretty good team. But let me be clear about one thing - the Red Sox are not in trouble because they don't steal bases.
The main reason a team steals bases is to get runners into a better position to drive them in. Surprisingly, that's the one thing the Red Sox have been able to do this season. The Red Sox have the baseball's highest team OPS and are second only to Toronto in extra base hits. So the Red Sox have proven themselves capable of getting men into scoring position without the need for the stolen base.
And you know what? Boston has done a pretty darn good job of bringing those guys in. The team ranks second in the majors win runs with 365, just one fewer than the New York Yankees.
On top of that, let's review the Red Sox' style of play generally. The Red Sox are not a small ball team. They never have been. It is not an essential part of the Red Sox game plan. Last year the Red Sox were fifth in baseball with 126 stolen bases, 70 of those by Jacoby Ellsbury. What happened that year? The Red Sox were swept by the Angels in the ALDS. So how did the stolen base help them?
Bottom line is it didn't. For the Red Sox the stolen base is a novelty, not a necessity. The offense is doing just fine without it. It's not that the Red Sox lack speed. While not true stolen base threats J.D. Drew, Marco Scutaro, Dustin Pedroia and Mike Cameron are all capable runners on the bases when it counts - when the ball is in play.
So stop worrying about a part of the game that is extremely overstated when it comes to the Red Sox. The pitching is there. The defense is solid. The offense is overachieving, even without the stolen base.
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