Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Notre Dame's Schedule Is Not All That Easy

SOUTH BEND, IN - SEPTEMBER 13: Jimmy Clausen #...Image by Getty Images via Daylife

Everyone has said it, so I might as well join the choir.

This is a make or break season for Fighting Irish football.

The dismal 3-9 season was a hard one to swallow for fans, but too many - including Charlie Weis - expected the world from true freshman Jimmy Clausen and when he didn't work out, Weis had no answers.

2008 could have been a bounce-back year for the Blue and Gold, but a seeming lack of leadership and maturity plagued the team. An inexcusable loss to Syracuse and a terrible performance against a beatable Boston College team illustrated that point. Throw on top of that a heartbreaking four-OT loss to Pittsburgh in which they held a two touchdown lead going into halftime and you have the perfect recipe for mediocrity. Even if they won two of the three, they would have headed into the bowl season at a respectable 8-4.

This year's team and schedule both remain basically the same. The Irish return a boatload on both sides of the ball, but specifically on offense, returning all three running backs, Clausen at quarterback, Golden Tate and Michael Floyd as arguably one of the best receiving tandems in college football and four starting offensive linemen.

While some claim the schedule is remarkably easier than last year, the bulk of the schedule is unchanged. Notre Dame returns USC, Michigan State, Michigan, Pittsburgh, Navy, Purdue, Washington, Stanford and Boston College. Five of these teams (USC, Michigan State, Pitt, Navy and BC) made it to bowl games in 2008. Washington State, UConn and Nevada are the newcomers as North Carolina, San Diego State and Syracuse exit. Nevada and UConn are also coming off of 2008 bowl games.

It's a schedule that is certainly manageable, as was the schedule a year prior. And it certainly doesn't start out easy for the Irish, who open the season at home against...

Nevada
Nevada doesn't get a lot of attention because they play in the WAC, a conference where you're not going to get any love unless you play for Boise State. Ending the season 5-3 in the WAC isn't anything really exciting, but when you have last year's fifth-ranked offense in football and two of the league's three top rushers and one of them is your quarterback, you've got a pretty decent team. Signal caller Colin Kaepernick is quite the double-threat, piling up nearly 4,000 total yards (2849 passing, 1130 rushing) and 41 touchdowns (22 passing, 17 rushing). Throw on top of that a running back that also topped 1,000 yards for the season and added 14 TD's and you have a formidable opponent for an Irish team that was not all that strong against the run last season.

Michigan
Michigan is coming off a disastrous 3-9 season and have a lot of uncertainties heading into this year, not the least of which is the quarterback situation. Most likely the team will be relying on true freshman Tate Forcier, who is talented, but Notre Dame fans can tell you how quickly a talented freshman can turn into a mess. The Wolverines fumbled seven times, losing four and turned the ball over a total of six times in a 35-17 loss in last year's meeting of teams holding college football's two best winning percentages. Still, no game played at The Big House can ever be looked upon lightly. Michigan has an 11-7 record against the Irish at home.

Michigan State
Javon Ringer is no longer a Spartan, so the Irish can breathe easier after he scorched them for 201 yards and two touchdowns in last year's meeting. Michigan State also still needs to work out its quarterback situation, but there's no reason to think that the preseason No. 24 team in the country is going to be a slouch. The Spartans are stocked with young talent at the skill positions and return almost all the key pieces of the defense, including All-Conference selection Greg Jones. Michigan State has also won three straight games at Notre Dame Stadium.

After this, things get a tad easier with...

Purdue
It will be interesting to see how the Boilermakers handle the Irish's three-headed running game of Armando Allen, Robert Hughes and James Aldridge, especially with Notre Dame being more committed to the run this season. Purdue was devistatingly bad at stopping the run last year, allowing about 175 rushing yards per game and don't figure to be much better this season.

Washington
Washington, once a PAC-10 powerhouse, has slipped so far and it's really sad to see. They finished winless last season at 0-12 and ranked 176th in the nation in defense, allowing 38.6 points per game. Jake Locker is an athletic quarterback who should improve the offense, but there's no reason to think this team is going to be good anytime soon.

Then things get a whole lot tougher in the form of...

USC
USC is the only team on Notre Dame's schedule that is clearly head and shoulders above it. Like a lot of teams on the Irish's schedule this year, the Trojans will be breaking in a new quarterback, but that never seems to be much of a problem for them. Notre Dame actually leads the all-time series, but hasn't beaten the Trojans since 2001. Since then, USC has taken seven straight, although some still believe the 2005 victory was stolen from the Irish.

Then back down to earth again to host...

Boston College
Boston College is a mess heading into the 2009 season and it's not all its fault. The Eagles hit a pretty crummy stretch of luck in the offseason. First, head coach Jeff Jagodzinski was fired after ignoring an ultimatum from AD Gene DiFilippo and interviewed for the New York Jets' head coaching position. Then ACC Defensive Player of the Year Mark Herzlich was diagnosed with cancer. Then to top it all off, projected starting quarterback Dominique Davis announced he was transferring after getting suspended for academics. The defense was the Eagles' strong point last season and now they will move on without their two best players (B.J. Raji graduated and was drafted and Herzlich is out indefinitely). Offensively, BC has a mess at the quarterback position with their best option being Codi Boek, a junior college transfer. Boek was actually converted to fullback last year, which speaks to his athleticism, but can't inspire much confidence in his abilities as a signal caller. Still, it's Notre Dame and BC and the Eagles have caused the Irish fits, including going 4-1 in their last five meetings in South Bend. This could possibly be the Eagles' last trip to Notre Dame Stadium for some time, as the contract expires in 2010 and contractual obligations with the Big East are making it hard to schedule future meetings.

And if things go bad there, there's no better cure than...

Washington State
Another PAC-10 cellar dweller, Washington State finished the season at 2-10 with an average margin of defeat of 41.9 points. The team was 184th in the country in defense, allowing 43.8 points per game and the offense was shut out three times (USC, Stanford, Arizona State). The one thing they have going for them is both of their wins did come at home and they play host to the Irish.

Then the rivalries continue on with...

Navy
Navy went a respectable 8-5 with an Independent schedule last year and is probably about the same calliber team this season. The current coach runs the flexbone offense, just as his predecesor did and that can always cause problems for the Irish, who need to figure out how to be more stout against the run. Notre Dame had won 43 straight before the Midshipmen beat the Irish in 2007. Last year, however, the Blue and Gold resumed its dominance over the series with a 27-21 win.

Then the season ends with winable games against...

Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh still boasts one of the best defenses in the country, so it will be interesting to see how Notre Dame's more than capable receivers handle it. Remarkably, last year's matchup between these two teams featured zero turnovers by Jimmy Clausen and the Irish, but they still blew a 17-3 halftime advantage and Pitt tied the game and sent it to overtime. Unable to score a touchdown in three prior overtimes, Charlie Weis sent out Brandon Walker to kick a fourth field goal - a 38-yarder, which he missed, giving Pitt the opportunity to win. Both teams return in similar shape as last season, with Pitt maybe even being a little better than last year, so it could shape up to be another classic.

UConn
At least once a season the Irish seem to fall asleep against a team they should beat. Could this be that game in 2009? A team like UConn ends up on Notre Dame's schedule every year because of the contractual obligation to play three Big East teams. The Huskies were somehow selected to a bowl game after going 3-4 in a very weak conference and have never done much to garner much attention since moving up from the Championship Subdivision. UConn, by the way, never won a championship at the Division I-AA level. In fact, they never made it to a championship game.

Stanford
Jimmy Clausen had the best game of in his career to that point against Stanford last season (he then bested those numbers at the Hawai'i Bowl) and yet Stanford still managed a fourth-quarter rally to make a game of it. Stanford is itching to give redshirt freshman Andrew Luck a chance to start, so if Tavita Pritchard struggles at any point this season, it could be another young quarterback the Irish face in its final game.

So it's a schedule full of winable games, but one where it wouldn't be all that surprising to see them drop a few. The one big plus about the layout of the schedule is it seems set up to prevent any serious losing streaks. Just as last year, it comes down to maturity and how to find a way to finish off games. Can Jimmy Clausen manage to find some composure? Some of that lies in how much the offensive line has matured. If the line shores itself up and the Irish can commit to the run the way they want to and take some of the pressure off of Clausen, there's no reason this team couldn't be a BCS contender at season's end. But beware of calling the schedule easy. It's anything but. For every Washington State, there's a Michigan State, for every Washington, a USC.
Reblog this post [with Zemanta]

1 comment:

  1. The Washington State game is actually going to be played in San Antonio, TX. This should really help ND with the exposure there and may lead to landing a recruit or two out of the high school football hotbed.

    ReplyDelete